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Non-continuation summary: UK Performance Indicators 2018/19

UK Performance Indicators: Non-Continuation Rates

Important - Changes to the UKPIs for 2018/19
Changes to definitions mean that the latest UKPI data differs from previous years' data. Expand this box for more information.

From 2017, the UK Performance Indicators population was extended to include Alternative Providers and the methodology was enhanced to cater for students who have less traditional start dates. HESA initially published indicators based on the enhanced methodology and with extended coverage as Experimental UK Performance Indicators. Users of the data were invited to provide feedback on the revised methodology. Following the feedback received and in consultation with key stakeholders, this methodology was adopted as the standard from 2020 and the experimental label was removed. Please note that the only indicators which have not been adapted to an extended population or with enhanced methodology are the projected outcomes (table T5) as further consultation is required. For further details please see the changes page.

This summary contains overview information on: Non-continuation rates of full-time entrants and part-time entrants | Return after a year out | Projected outcomes for 2015/16 to 2018/19.

View the detailed non-continuation tables

The purpose of the indicators is to provide an objective measure of how the UK higher education (HE) sector is performing.

For any individual who enrols at an HE provider, there are a range of outcomes that the student may achieve after a particular time. In these tables we define a student to have continued if they obtain a qualification (not necessarily the one they were originally aiming for) or remain active at the same HE provider (even if studying a different course to the one originally started). See the non-continuation definition for more detail. 

Tables T3a-d, T3e and T4 of this release are based on a revised methodology and UK Performance Indicators population including alternative providers. This population and enhanced methodology were used to produce experimental statistics for 2014/15 to 2017/18, and now represent the standard method for producing UK Performance Indicators. The tabulations include the 2018/19 data alongside the experimental data for comparison purposes. Data run on the previous methodology can be found in the publication archive.

Table T5, which shows projected outcomes, is based on the previous method of calculating the UK Performance Indicators and does not include alternative providers. Please see the publication archive for data prior to 2015/16.

Tables and charts included within this release include an academic year filter, allowing users to change between the current and previous years of data.

 

Non-continuation rates of full-time entrants after first year at HE provider

In table series T3, we highlight the proportion of full-time entrants who do not continue in higher education beyond their first year, with T3a showing the figures for first degree entrants, while T3d focuses on other undergraduate entrants.

Table D provides non-continuation rates over time by country of HE provider. For full-time first degree entrants, we see higher rates among mature students than young students.

Table D - Percentage of UK domiciled full-time entrants who did not leave within 50 days of commencement not continuing in HE after their first year by location of HE provider and academic year of entry

Academic years of entry 2014/15 to 2017/18

 
 

Focusing on the time trend (Chart 6), non-continuation rates among young and mature, full-time first degree students have seen an increase in the last few years.

With regards to other undergraduate entrants, the non-continuation rate for young, full-time students in the UK has seen a decrease over the last few years while for mature entrants there have been fluctuations in the rate.

Chart 6 - Percentage of UK domiciled entrants who did not leave within 50 days of commencement not continuing in HE after their first year by academic year

Academic years 2014/15 to 2017/18

 

Chart 7 considers non-continuation rates across HE providers and plots both the indicator and benchmark. There is clearly greater spread in the reported figures for mature when compared to young entrants. 

Chart 7 - Percentage of UK domiciled full-time entrants who did not leave within 50 days of commencement not continuing in HE after their first year

Academic years 2014/15 to 2017/18

 
 
 
 
 
 

Non-continuation rates of part-time entrants after second year at HE provider

Table T3e concentrates on non-continuation two years after entry for part-time first degree entrants. In Table E, we illustrate non-continuation rates for this group. Rates are slightly higher among those aged 30 and under than for those aged over 30. Chart 8 illustrates how the proportion varies within the sector.

Table E - Percentage of UK domiciled part-time first degree entrants who did not leave within 50 days of commencement not continuing in HE after their second year by location of HE provider and academic year of entry

Academic years of entry 2014/15 to 2016/17

 

Chart 8 - Percentage of UK domiciled part-time entrants who did not leave within 50 days of commencement not continuing two years following year of entry

Academic years 2014/15 to 2016/17

 
 
 
 
 

Return after a year out

Table T4 discloses the percentage of students who return to HE after a year out. The data provides a split to show the proportions who return to their initial provider, transfer to another provider and those who do not return to study.

Projected outcomes

The projected learning outcomes for full-time students starting their programme of study is supplied in Table T5. They give the outcomes that would be expected from starters at HE providers should these progression patterns continue in subsequent years.

The sector averages for the UK and its constituent countries are obtained by taking a weighted average of all the relevant HE provider values. We see from Table F and Chart 9 that since 2012/13 the proportion of full-time first degree students expected to qualify with a degree from the HE provider at which they started in the UK is showing a slight decline.

Table F - Projected outcomes of UK domiciled full-time first degree starters by location of HE provider and academic year of entry

Academic years of entry 1997/98 to 2017/18

 

Chart 9 - Projected learning outcomes of UK domiciled full-time first degree starters by academic year of entry

Academic years of entry 2001/02 to 2017/18

 

Chart 10 plots the projected percentage of starters expected to neither gain an award nor transfer for each provider alongside their benchmark for the last four academic years.

Chart 10 - Percentage of UK domiciled full-time first degree starters projected to neither obtain an award nor transfer

Academic years 2015/16 to 2017/18

 
 
 
 

Notes

Who classifies as a young entrant?

Young entrants are those aged under 21, whilst mature students are those aged 21 or over on 30 September of the academic year in which the student is recorded as commencing their studies. In Table T3e young entrants are those aged 30 and under, mature are those aged over 30.

How are the continuation categories defined?

Full details on how the non-continuation data has been produced can be found in the non-continuation technical document and projected outcomes technical document.

What is the POLAR methodology?

The POLAR classification places local areas into five quintiles, based on the higher education participation rates of 18 year olds in the locality. Those with the lowest percentages are placed into quintile 1 and are considered to be the most disadvantaged, with quintile 5 having the highest rates.

An individual is deemed to be from a low participation neighbourhood if their area falls into quintile 1.

Please note that the various ways in which low participation neighbourhoods have been defined over the years are not comparable and hence analysing time trends should be done using the same classification method.

For more information on POLAR, please refer to our widening participation definitions. The distinction between all methods can be found in the changes section.

The POLAR4 method was introduced in the Experimental Statistics: UK Performance Indicators release and has become the standard method for 2018/19 data onwards.

The NI Multiple Deprivation Measure and other NI geographical indicators are based on Crown Copyright and are reproduced with the permission of Land & Property Services under delegated authority from the Keeper of Public Records, © Crown copyright and database right 2020 NIMA MOU577.4

How are The Open University (OU) students dealt with?

Prior to 2014/15, all OU entrants were considered to be in England, where the university has its administrative centre. However, since 2014/15, entrants have been allocated to the country where their national centre is located.

Where can I find information on any merger or changes to HE providers?

We publish information on HE provider mergers and changes. Note that any new providers will have their non-continuation data suppressed until they have been in the sector for at least two years allowing for their students to be tracked across academic years.

Are there any additional notes on the Performance Indicators to accompany this publication?

For more information relating to the UK Performance Indicators, please view the data intelligence notes.

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